ANZ Bank Cuts Australia's Economic Growth Forecast, Banks Face Key Tests

On May 5, the ANZ Bank lowered its economic growth forecast for Australia in 2025 to 2.0%. The main reasons are the slowdown in global demand and geopolitical risks weighing on exports. With the growth rate of CPI in the first quarter falling, the market expects that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may cut interest rates by 25 basis points ahead of schedule this month, and may cumulatively cut interest rates by 1 percentage point throughout the year to hedge against the economic downward pressure.

This week, the banking sector is facing a key test. The half - year profits of the four major banks are expected to reach 10.4 billion Australian dollars. Driven by the risk - averse sentiment triggered by the US tariff war, the market capitalization of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) has broken through 280 billion US dollars, reaching a record high. The share prices of Westpac, the National Australia Bank (NAB), and ANZ have all outperformed the market. However, analysts warn that the valuations are already at a high level, and the non - performing loan ratio, net interest margin, and capital adequacy ratio in the financial reports have become the focus. If the data deteriorates, it may lead to the withdrawal of foreign capital. Westpac Bank took the lead in announcing a half - year profit of 3.4 billion Australian dollars on Monday, and NAB and ANZ will follow suit.

The market is concerned about the transmission effect of the RBA's interest rate cut. Although banks may fully cut lending rates, the narrowing of the deposit - loan interest rate spread may be politically restricted. The mining sector is under pressure due to weak demand from China, and the logic of capital flight to safety is facing a test. The Alphinity fund points out that the "safe - haven" status of banks stems from their relative immunity to geopolitical risks compared with the mining sector, but their long - term growth momentum is in doubt.