Canada's June Ivey PMI Rises to 4-Month High; Rental Market Cools Unevenly
Canada’s Ivey PMI climbed to 53.3 in June, a four-month high, signaling accelerating economic activity. However, underlying concerns emerged: the employment sub-index dipped below 50 (49.5), while the price index surged to 70.2, highlighting mounting inflation pressures.
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Major cities saw divergent rental trends, per CMHC’s mid-year report: four of seven metro areas posted year-on-year drops in two-bedroom rents—Vancouver led at -4.9%, followed by Halifax (-4.2%), Toronto (-3.7%), and Calgary (-3.5%). Only Edmonton (+3.9%), Ottawa (+2.1%), and Montreal (+2%) rose. Drivers included supply surges (new apartments and secondary rentals forcing landlord incentives like free months), slower population growth from reduced immigration targets, and weak tenant affordability. Toronto saw a 44% gap between vacant and occupied unit rents, reflecting liquidity stalls.
Despite national average rents falling 2.7% YoY to C$2,125 (ninth straight monthly drop), affordability worsened—rents remain 11.9% higher than three years ago, with rent-to-income ratios rising in Vancouver and Toronto. Analysts warn the cool-down is temporary; slowing new supply and projected population growth will keep the affordability crisis unresolved.
