Ireland Revises Q1 GDP Down, Germany’s Exports Slide on U.S. Tariff Shifts

Germany’s May exports dropped 1.4% month-on-month (vs. -0.2% expected), with U.S. shipments falling 7.7% after April’s 10.5% plunge. ING attributed this to reversed "pre-tariff rush"—firms frontloaded exports to avoid April’s 10% U.S. tariffs—rather than direct tariff hits. Commerzbank warned U.S. exports may keep shrinking if no EU-U.S. deal is reached by July 9 (seen as unlikely). Germany’s trade surplus rose to €18.4 billion as imports fell faster (-3.8%).

The data reflects divergent euro zone economic undercurrents: Ireland’s revisions reveal underlying domestic strength beyond volatile GDP, while Germany’s export slump underscores vulnerability to transatlantic trade policy shifts, with tariff-related timing effects complicating near-term trends.