On May 5, positive signals emerged in New Zealand's trade sector, with the impact of US - imposed tariffs on agricultural exports proving to be limited. Paul Clark, an economist at Westpac, forecasts that milk prices will remain stable at NZ$10.30 per kilogram this season, potentially edging down to NZ$10 next season, though fluctuations in supply, demand, and exchange rates could still drive prices upward.
New Zealand's Trade Shows Positive Signs as Real Estate Market Remains Mixed
On May 5, positive signals emerged in New Zealand's trade sector, with the impact of US - imposed tariffs on agricultural exports proving to be limited. Paul Clark, an economist at Westpac, forecasts that milk prices will remain stable at NZ$10.30 per kilogram this season, potentially edging down to NZ$10 next season, though fluctuations in supply, demand, and exchange rates could still drive prices upward. Beef prices continue to rise due to tight global supply and strong demand, with the 10% US tariff having a minimal impact. Driven by markets in Europe and the Middle East, lamb prices are expected to increase, although growing supplies from Australia and the UK may cap the gains. Fruit and vegetable prices remain high, with improved returns for kiwifruit and apples. However, the demand for logs is weighed down by China's policies and the US - China trade war, likely leading to price volatility.
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In the real estate market, data from Barfoot & Thompson shows that 842 residential properties were sold in April, a four - year high for the same period, representing a 19.6% year - on - year increase. Nevertheless, house prices continue to decline. The median price dropped 3.7% month - on - month to NZ$934,000 and 7.3% year - on - year, while the average price of NZ$1.1107 million fell 8.4% year - on - year, both hitting the lowest levels since 2020. Housing inventory reached 6,113 units, a 17 - year high.
Peter Thompson, the managing director, pointed out that trade discussions at the beginning of the month temporarily dampened sales, which rebounded towards the end. However, the weak price trend persists, leaving the market's recovery prospects uncertain. While the trade sector brings some optimism, the real estate market continues to face challenges, reflecting the complex economic situation in New Zealand.
