US April Non - farm Payrolls Report: A Key Variable for Markets

The US April non - farm payrolls report is set to be a crucial variable for the markets. The market generally expects the addition of 130,000 jobs, the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2%, and the annual growth rate of average hourly earnings to slow to 3.9%. If the data is significantly lower than expected, say the new jobs added are less than 100,000, it may intensify market concerns about a "hard landing" of the US economy, pushing the US dollar index down to test the 98.5 support level, and the pound - dollar exchange rate may test the 1.34 resistance area. On the contrary, if the data exceeds expectations, such as the new jobs added are more than 160,000 and the wage growth rebounds, the US dollar may make a technical rebound and return to the 101 mark, and the pound - dollar exchange rate will face a strong support test at 1.3250 - 1.3200.

While US data dominates short - term fluctuations, the UK's own fundamentals cannot be ignored. The final value of the UK's manufacturing PMI in April slightly rose to 45.4, but the shrinkage rate of export orders hit a five - year high, indicating a significant impact of Trump's tariff policies on the UK's export - oriented economy. Meanwhile, the expectation of a rate cut by the Bank of England is heating up. Interest rate futures show that the rate cut range in the remaining time of 2025 will reach 100 basis points. The increasing divergence in policies between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve may suppress the long - term performance of the pound. However, there are still bright spots in the UK's economic resilience. The central bank's mortgage approval data in March exceeded expectations, indicating a relatively stable real estate market. Although the services PMI dropped to 48.9, it is still higher than that of the manufacturing industry, suggesting that consumer demand has not fully deteriorated.

There are differences in the views of institutions. Morgan Stanley believes that the UK is less affected by tariffs, and the pound has a relative advantage among non - US dollar currencies. It is expected that the pound - dollar exchange rate will rise to 1.34 by the end of 2025. Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, points out that the weak economic growth in the UK and the dovish stance of the central bank may limit the appreciation of the pound. It is expected to remain in the range of 1.20 - 1.30 throughout the year.